i find it hard to separate the two as one dictates rules concerning the other, they are inherently intertwined (covid and gov't). but i guess its my fault for not happily going along with the destruction of the country because of this cold virus. i'll just shut up and watch the world burn in my own little hole then.......Shannon SteelSlave wrote:I appreciated your frustration, T. Anger is fine, I will never try to suppress anyone who is, but please take it easy on the political talk. None is the preferred amount. OK?
Corona
Re: Corona
For those that get it, no explanation is needed. For those that don't, no explanation is possible.
"Some men just want to watch the world burn" - i can relate to this more and more the older i get!
"Some men just want to watch the world burn" - i can relate to this more and more the older i get!
Re: Corona
I really feel you need to look at more news sources if you're getting info from OANN. It's bad, but it's not nearly as bad as the doom-porn and FUD spread by "news" organisations like that. (Or just stop listening to any "news" media, mainstream or otherwise, altogether. Made me much happier)TNTBound wrote:i find it hard to separate the two as one dictates rules concerning the other, they are inherently intertwined (covid and gov't). but i guess its my fault for not happily going along with the destruction of the country because of this cold virus. i'll just shut up and watch the world burn in my own little hole then.......Shannon SteelSlave wrote:I appreciated your frustration, T. Anger is fine, I will never try to suppress anyone who is, but please take it easy on the political talk. None is the preferred amount. OK?
How may I serve you? *Curtsey*
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bound_jenny
- Moderator
- Posts: 10268
- Joined: 09 Dec 2007, 12:37
- Location: Montreal, Canada, Great Kinky North
Re: Corona
What he said.Shannon SteelSlave wrote:I appreciated your frustration, T. Anger is fine, I will never try to suppress anyone who is, but please take it easy on the political talk. None is the preferred amount. OK?
I have my own flask of vitriol about that sort of stuff, but I'm holding it back, in the spirit of the forum's raison d'être.
I'd rather put my energy into taking over the world.
Jenny.
Helplessness is a doorway to the innermost reaches of the soul.
If my corset isn't tight, it just isn't right!
Kink is the spice of life!
Come to the Dark Side - we have cookies!
If my corset isn't tight, it just isn't right!
Kink is the spice of life!
Come to the Dark Side - we have cookies!
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OrgasmAlley
- ****
- Posts: 515
- Joined: 18 Nov 2012, 17:43
Re: Corona
Personally, I prefer simply going to the data. It seems clear to me that things like lockdowns and mandating mask wearing are not supported by research as effective non-medical interventions in reducing infections or deaths from the COVID... and therefore those pushing them have some motivation other than that they state (to protect the citizenry).
This is, of course, a controversial view. The vast bulk of media have consistently claimed that these very measures are vital to reducing the COVID, ignoring anything to the contrary. Anyone getting their COVID news exclusively from the NYT/NBC/BBC class of media, the Facebook approved messaging, or the CDC will strongly disagree with me.
They would benefit from this very useful compilation of various data: https://brownstone.org/articles/more-th ... rrPHP-fKRQ
"The great body of evidence (comparative research studies and high-quality pieces of evidence and reporting judged to be relevant to this analysis) shows that COVID-19 lockdowns, shelter-in-place policies, masks, school closures, and mask mandates have failed in their purpose of curbing transmission or reducing deaths. These restrictive policies were ineffective and devastating failures, causing immense harm especially to the poorer and vulnerable within societies."
A couple of examples:
Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic, Meunier, 2020
"Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic."
Death and Lockdowns, Tierney, 2021
"Now that the 2020 figures have been properly tallied, there’s still no convincing evidence that strict lockdowns reduced the death toll from Covid-19. But one effect is clear: more deaths from other causes, especially among the young and middle-aged, minorities, and the less affluent.The best gauge of the pandemic’s impact is what statisticians call “excess mortality,” which compares the overall number of deaths with the total in previous years. That measure rose among older Americans because of Covid-19, but it rose at an even sharper rate among people aged 15 to 54, and most of those excess deaths were not attributed to the virus."
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh, Abaluck, 2021
"A cluster-randomized trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh from November 2020 to April 2021 (N=600 villages, N=342,126 adults. Heneghan writes: “In a Bangladesh study, surgical masks reduced symptomatic COVID infections by between 0 and 22 percent, while the efficacy of cloth masks led to somewhere between an 11 percent increase to a 21 percent decrease. Hence, based on these randomized studies, adult masks appear to have either no or limited efficacy."
This is, of course, a controversial view. The vast bulk of media have consistently claimed that these very measures are vital to reducing the COVID, ignoring anything to the contrary. Anyone getting their COVID news exclusively from the NYT/NBC/BBC class of media, the Facebook approved messaging, or the CDC will strongly disagree with me.
They would benefit from this very useful compilation of various data: https://brownstone.org/articles/more-th ... rrPHP-fKRQ
"The great body of evidence (comparative research studies and high-quality pieces of evidence and reporting judged to be relevant to this analysis) shows that COVID-19 lockdowns, shelter-in-place policies, masks, school closures, and mask mandates have failed in their purpose of curbing transmission or reducing deaths. These restrictive policies were ineffective and devastating failures, causing immense harm especially to the poorer and vulnerable within societies."
A couple of examples:
Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic, Meunier, 2020
"Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic."
Death and Lockdowns, Tierney, 2021
"Now that the 2020 figures have been properly tallied, there’s still no convincing evidence that strict lockdowns reduced the death toll from Covid-19. But one effect is clear: more deaths from other causes, especially among the young and middle-aged, minorities, and the less affluent.The best gauge of the pandemic’s impact is what statisticians call “excess mortality,” which compares the overall number of deaths with the total in previous years. That measure rose among older Americans because of Covid-19, but it rose at an even sharper rate among people aged 15 to 54, and most of those excess deaths were not attributed to the virus."
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh, Abaluck, 2021
"A cluster-randomized trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh from November 2020 to April 2021 (N=600 villages, N=342,126 adults. Heneghan writes: “In a Bangladesh study, surgical masks reduced symptomatic COVID infections by between 0 and 22 percent, while the efficacy of cloth masks led to somewhere between an 11 percent increase to a 21 percent decrease. Hence, based on these randomized studies, adult masks appear to have either no or limited efficacy."
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Shannon SteelSlave
- Moderator
- Posts: 6622
- Joined: 03 Feb 2019, 19:49
- Location: New England, USA
Re: Corona
Well I certainly don't want you to do that. Your contributions to DIY and Self Bondage Discussions have been informative, idea generating, and fun to read, and I even encourage some blowing off of steam once in a while, or if necessary, more than once in a while. We have even had some good exchanges in public and private here. But as far as politics, we just have a "not here, please" policy. It's not you, it's just one of those things that grabs the wheel of a thread and steers it into the guardrails every time.TNTBound wrote:i'll just shut up and watch the world burn in my own little hole then.......
Bondage is like a foreign film without subtitles. Only through sharing and practice can we hope to understand.
A Jedi uses bondage for knowledge and defense, never for attack.
I am so smart! I am so smart! S-M-R-T!....I, I mean S-M-A-R-T!
A Jedi uses bondage for knowledge and defense, never for attack.
I am so smart! I am so smart! S-M-R-T!....I, I mean S-M-A-R-T!
Re: Corona
Putting my Moderator hat on, I would strongly agree with the "no politics on this forum" statement. This is a forum with members across the globe.
What does worry me, without my Moderator's hat, is that apparently almost all our governments have followed the same pathway, using the same blunt instruments irrespective of collateral damage. This is obviously not party-political, nor related to country, race or religion, but is introducing draconian regulation of the behaviour of the population by laws apparently thought up "on the hoof" with no considered regard for the consequences. It is also apparent that politicians have little or no understanding of the science they purport to be following.
What does worry me, without my Moderator's hat, is that apparently almost all our governments have followed the same pathway, using the same blunt instruments irrespective of collateral damage. This is obviously not party-political, nor related to country, race or religion, but is introducing draconian regulation of the behaviour of the population by laws apparently thought up "on the hoof" with no considered regard for the consequences. It is also apparent that politicians have little or no understanding of the science they purport to be following.
be a switch, double the fun 
Re: Corona
And on the going back to actual science: here's Derek Lowe's write-up on what we know about Omicron: https://www.science.org/content/blog-po ... ron-update
Key takeaways:
Key takeaways:
- It spreads faster than Delta.
- It appears to reproduce faster in the upper respiratory tract than in the lower, leading to less severe disease and less hospitalisations / deaths;
- Vaccines are less effective at two doses;
- Booster shots have a huge effect on it - so get your booster now.
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OrgasmAlley
- ****
- Posts: 515
- Joined: 18 Nov 2012, 17:43
Re: Corona
Denmark is interesting, as they collect extensive data and are in the midst of a massive Omicron wave seeing cases doubling every 2 days. Demnark is 80% "fully vaccinated" (two shots) and 27% boosted (three shots). They're seeing 75% on new cases in the fully vaxxed, and 9% in the boosted. This supports both the claims that the fully vaccinated are fully susceptible to infection and that the boosters have some (about 33% overall) effectiveness against infection.
All of the early data does not suggest boosters are actually effective in a meaningful way, however. This December 8 preprint finds sera from people who received the third dose lost almost ninety percent of its potency against Omicron after two weeks. After three months, most third-dose sera failed to neutralize at all: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf
This does make sense for the Denmark data, since their booster program has been on a massive uptick over the last four weeks, and particularly the last two.
All of the early data does not suggest boosters are actually effective in a meaningful way, however. This December 8 preprint finds sera from people who received the third dose lost almost ninety percent of its potency against Omicron after two weeks. After three months, most third-dose sera failed to neutralize at all: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf
This does make sense for the Denmark data, since their booster program has been on a massive uptick over the last four weeks, and particularly the last two.
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tiemeupalso
- ****
- Posts: 732
- Joined: 19 Sep 2009, 19:03
- Location: cameron/rockdale,tx
- Contact:
Re: Corona
these drug d3ealers are making a mint and laughing all the way to the bank over this hysteria being driven by the media and the governments
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OrgasmAlley
- ****
- Posts: 515
- Joined: 18 Nov 2012, 17:43
Re: Corona
How do various forms of COVID immunity wane over time? There's a solid looking answer at last, courtesy of a pre-print study out of Israel looking at well over five million people. For obvious reasons, there's no longitudinal information to speak of for the booster durability.
https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/ ... 21267114v1
The single best chart ever on this question, hopefully attached
https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/ ... 21267114v1
The single best chart ever on this question, hopefully attached
- Attachments
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OrgasmAlley
- ****
- Posts: 515
- Joined: 18 Nov 2012, 17:43
Re: Corona
In the "sad humor of the day" category, the CDC current says the following about Omicron:
"Spread: The Omicron variant likely will spread more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and how easily Omicron spreads compared to Delta remains unknown."
"Severe Illness: More data are needed to know if Omicron infections, and especially reinfections and breakthrough infections in people who are fully vaccinated, cause more severe illness or death than infection with other variants."
Perhaps the CDC should read a just a little bit, since we have rather significant information on these two questions and are not totally in the dark as claimed here. Omicron is doubling every 2.4 days in the UK. Imperial College London says it's 5.4 times more likely to reinfect those with a prior recovery, and vaccine effectiveness for two doses mRNA is between 0 and 20 percent (compared to about 80% for Delta). Note that combined with the chart in prior post, 5.4 times more likely to reinfect puts prior infection ON PAR with two dose vaccination in the 6-8 month timeframe for protection against infection. ICL finds no evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta, but the South African data strongly indicates that it is... low hospitalization rate for known cases, more than half of which are incidental (meaning they were hospitalized for something else, and only known infected because of mandatory admissions testing), and vanishingly low deaths attributable to Omicron after a month. SA's case surge appears to be subsiding.
Pre-print from South Africa: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... zxOtiJQjwE
"From 1 October through 6 December 2021, 161,328 COVID-19 cases were reported nationally; 38,282 were tested using TaqPath PCR and 29,721 SGTF infections were identified. The proportion of SGTF infections increased from 3% in early October (week 39) to 98% in early December (week 48). On multivariable analysis, after controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation, individuals with SGTF infection had lower odds of being admitted to hospital compared to non-SGTF infections (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.3). Among hospitalised individuals, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, the odds of severe disease did not differ between SGTF-infected individuals compared to non-SGTF individuals diagnosed during the same time period (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.3-1.4). Compared to earlier Delta infections, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, SGTF-infected individuals had a lower odds of severe disease (aOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.5)."
The CDC, through mouthpiece Fauci, likes to tell everyone not to ignore "the science", but still hasn't acknowledged the now-vast amount of research supporting the superiority of prior infection over vaccination, and now can't say anything about how easily Omicron spreads relative to Delta. Great stuff. Worth the money.
"Spread: The Omicron variant likely will spread more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and how easily Omicron spreads compared to Delta remains unknown."
"Severe Illness: More data are needed to know if Omicron infections, and especially reinfections and breakthrough infections in people who are fully vaccinated, cause more severe illness or death than infection with other variants."
Perhaps the CDC should read a just a little bit, since we have rather significant information on these two questions and are not totally in the dark as claimed here. Omicron is doubling every 2.4 days in the UK. Imperial College London says it's 5.4 times more likely to reinfect those with a prior recovery, and vaccine effectiveness for two doses mRNA is between 0 and 20 percent (compared to about 80% for Delta). Note that combined with the chart in prior post, 5.4 times more likely to reinfect puts prior infection ON PAR with two dose vaccination in the 6-8 month timeframe for protection against infection. ICL finds no evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta, but the South African data strongly indicates that it is... low hospitalization rate for known cases, more than half of which are incidental (meaning they were hospitalized for something else, and only known infected because of mandatory admissions testing), and vanishingly low deaths attributable to Omicron after a month. SA's case surge appears to be subsiding.
Pre-print from South Africa: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... zxOtiJQjwE
"From 1 October through 6 December 2021, 161,328 COVID-19 cases were reported nationally; 38,282 were tested using TaqPath PCR and 29,721 SGTF infections were identified. The proportion of SGTF infections increased from 3% in early October (week 39) to 98% in early December (week 48). On multivariable analysis, after controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation, individuals with SGTF infection had lower odds of being admitted to hospital compared to non-SGTF infections (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.3). Among hospitalised individuals, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, the odds of severe disease did not differ between SGTF-infected individuals compared to non-SGTF individuals diagnosed during the same time period (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.3-1.4). Compared to earlier Delta infections, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, SGTF-infected individuals had a lower odds of severe disease (aOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.5)."
The CDC, through mouthpiece Fauci, likes to tell everyone not to ignore "the science", but still hasn't acknowledged the now-vast amount of research supporting the superiority of prior infection over vaccination, and now can't say anything about how easily Omicron spreads relative to Delta. Great stuff. Worth the money.
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bound_jenny
- Moderator
- Posts: 10268
- Joined: 09 Dec 2007, 12:37
- Location: Montreal, Canada, Great Kinky North
Re: Corona
Hi, guys...
Guess what my Christmas present was... COVID.
I feel like crap. Weak. Wobbly. Tired. Yesterday I couldn't stop coughing. Today is better but I'm weak as hell. Couldn't crack a whip if I tried.
I'll check in here once in a while - my Priority One is rest and staying hydrated.
Don't blow up my PM box with well-wishes - do it here if you want.
I'll hang in there if you do.
Jenny.
Guess what my Christmas present was... COVID.
I feel like crap. Weak. Wobbly. Tired. Yesterday I couldn't stop coughing. Today is better but I'm weak as hell. Couldn't crack a whip if I tried.
I'll check in here once in a while - my Priority One is rest and staying hydrated.
Don't blow up my PM box with well-wishes - do it here if you want.
I'll hang in there if you do.
Jenny.
Helplessness is a doorway to the innermost reaches of the soul.
If my corset isn't tight, it just isn't right!
Kink is the spice of life!
Come to the Dark Side - we have cookies!
If my corset isn't tight, it just isn't right!
Kink is the spice of life!
Come to the Dark Side - we have cookies!
Re: Corona
That's not a great christmas presentbound_jenny wrote:Hi, guys...
Guess what my Christmas present was... COVID.
I feel like crap. Weak. Wobbly. Tired. Yesterday I couldn't stop coughing. Today is better but I'm weak as hell. Couldn't crack a whip if I tried.
I'll check in here once in a while - my Priority One is rest and staying hydrated.
Don't blow up my PM box with well-wishes - do it here if you want.
I'll hang in there if you do.
Jenny.
. I wish you a speedy recovery. I'm sure everybody here can behave in the meantime. There's still the hamsters to consider for instance. Not to mention you'll be needing practice once your up to it 
How may I serve you? *Curtsey*
Re: Corona
Oh no!bound_jenny wrote:Hi, guys...
Guess what my Christmas present was... COVID.
I feel like crap. Weak. Wobbly. Tired. Yesterday I couldn't stop coughing. Today is better but I'm weak as hell. Couldn't crack a whip if I tried.
I'll check in here once in a while - my Priority One is rest and staying hydrated.
Don't blow up my PM box with well-wishes - do it here if you want.
I'll hang in there if you do.
Jenny.
Hope you get well soon xx
Lisa
Re: Corona
I hope you get well soon and in good health. Rest well so that you can wield your whip again next year.bound_jenny wrote:Hi, guys...
Guess what my Christmas present was... COVID.
Jenny.
