Corona

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kinbaku
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Re: Corona

Post by kinbaku »

Here in Belgium they are talking about giving all over 18 year olds a third vaccination.
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Re: Corona

Post by OrgasmAlley »

The UK data tells an interesting story, particularly to those still seeking "COVID-zero".

UK is 78% fully vaxxed, and has been rolling out third shots to those 50 and over or with severe co-morbidity since late September. Recent testing showed antibody prevalence of 93.6%... that is, 94/100 UK residents have COVID antibodies, through either vaccination or prior infection. No testing for persistent memory T and B cells.

The UK overall is currently seeing high rates for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. All of these characteristics are rising... in the last week, they're up 12.8%, 5.4%, and 6.9% respectively. R0 > 1.

On the day of October 9, 70k people had new symptomatic cases of the COVID. 19k of those people were fully vaccinated, indicating a substantially lower but non-trivial confirmed symptomatic case rate in that cohort. By age, about half these cases (and much of the unvaxxed differential) are among those 0-18... primarily school age children, among whom vax rates are quite low and testing rates are very high. This age range's rate has fallen over the last two weeks. The current increase is driven by the 35-55 year old range, although other age groups except 18-35 are increasing as well.

In terms of geography, every region except Scotland -- where there was a substantial wave through mid-September -- is either very high or rising. Mostly both.

Make of that what you will. Certainly all of the older projections about herd immunity are out the window.... the new standard of "97-98%" seems likely to fall when hit.
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TheBouncer
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Re: Corona

Post by TheBouncer »

kinbaku wrote:Here in Belgium they are talking about giving all over 18 year olds a third vaccination.

I think they are talking about the booster. Which was known to be a thing since the beginning. Just didn’t come till….. The crazies didn’t want to get a simple jab
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ruru67
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Re: Corona

Post by ruru67 »

Experience in Israel, where there has been a campaign of third vaccinations for some time, shows that the third shot is remarkably effective. I expect that most places will move to third shot campaigns as their two-shot efforts reach saturation.
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Re: Corona

Post by TheBouncer »

ruru67 wrote:Experience in Israel, where there has been a campaign of third vaccinations for some time, shows that the third shot is remarkably effective. I expect that most places will move to third shot campaigns as their two-shot efforts reach saturation.

Yes, it’s 6-8 months I think after your second to get booster. Bring it on….. it’s no different then getting the flu shot every year. I’d rather not take the chances with my family having a history of heart problems.
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Re: Corona

Post by OrgasmAlley »

I'd still like to see more countries acknowledge the substantial effectiveness of naturally acquired immunity against both infection and serious cases.

The Israel data that I'm aware of suggests that a fully vaxxed person without the booster is 11 times more likely to contract the COVID and 20 times more likely to have a serious case than a boosted person. As rur67 notes, this is a remarkable level of effectiveness.

In contrast, Israel data on matched pairs of people with natural and fully vaccinated immunity suggests that those who are vaxxed are 6-13 times more likely to get the COVID and 27 times more likely to have a serious case than those who have recovered. This is roughly the same remarkable level of effectiveness at preventing infection, and significantly more remarkably effective at preventing serious cases.

Ignoring natural immunity continues to be unscientific.
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Re: Corona

Post by lj »

OrgasmAlley wrote:I'd still like to see more countries acknowledge the substantial effectiveness of naturally acquired immunity against both infection and serious cases.

Ignoring natural immunity continues to be unscientific.
which highlights the craziness of the UK government wanting to vaccinate children - they catch it, get immune, and develop no or minimal symptoms (in almost all cases). When I was a kid, if a child got infected with one of the common diseases like chicken pox or german measles, parents would often invite their child's friends round to catch it - both are far more serious amongst adults (I caught chicken pox from my young daughter, she had a mild fever and a few red spots, gone in a couple of days - I spent two weeks barely able to get out of bed, covered in some very nasty spots)
be a switch, double the fun :-)
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TheBouncer
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Re: Corona

Post by TheBouncer »

OrgasmAlley wrote:I'd still like to see more countries acknowledge the substantial effectiveness of naturally acquired immunity against both infection and serious cases.

The Israel data that I'm aware of suggests that a fully vaxxed person without the booster is 11 times more likely to contract the COVID and 20 times more likely to have a serious case than a boosted person. As rur67 notes, this is a remarkable level of effectiveness.

In contrast, Israel data on matched pairs of people with natural and fully vaccinated immunity suggests that those who are vaxxed are 6-13 times more likely to get the COVID and 27 times more likely to have a serious case than those who have recovered. This is roughly the same remarkable level of effectiveness at preventing infection, and significantly more remarkably effective at preventing serious cases.

Ignoring natural immunity continues to be unscientific.

Yes, I think the data was along the lines those that got sick
Prior and used only a single shot had insane high resistance vs those who got both. Got to love science. Either way having anything vs nothing at all is a huge difference though. So don’t forget that stuff like 11x or 20x may seem a lot but what numbers are we comparing here……that’s also a big part too.
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Re: Corona

Post by OrgasmAlley »

The Israeli study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf) does not compare anything vs. nothing. It's a matched pair retrospective study using the excellent Health Ministry data that compares:

- those fully vaxxed by Feb 28, 2021 (control)
- those with a confirmed prior infection by Feb 28, 2021
- those with a prior infection by Feb 28, 2021 AND a booster shot of Pfizer by May 25, 2021

The multiples above directly compare the first and second groups... that is, the fully vaxxed with the previously infected. There were 16,215 comparison pairs here, 257 infections, and 199 symptomatic cases, and 9 hospitalizations. Broken down by group:

Fully vaccinated
- infections = 238
- symptomatic infections = 191
- hospitalizations = 8

Natural immunity
- infections = 19
- symptomatic infections = 8
- hospitalizations = 1

This data -- adjusted for comorbidities -- is where the multiples indicating vastly superior protection from natural immunity vs. vaccinated immunity came from.

The study also matched individuals from these groups _without_ regard to time of prior infection in the second group. This showed a decline in the superiority of natural immunity... for example, from 13 times better protection against reinfection to 6 times better ("Model 2").

The final model matched groups 2 and 3... 14K of them. The previously infected plus single dose group had about half the risk of reinfection shown in the previously infected no vaccine group, at a statistically significant level.
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Re: Corona

Post by OrgasmAlley »

To highlight the nature of the issue I have here, in the US some locales are currently terminating nurses, police officers, and so forth on the basis of local mandates because they refuse to get vaccinated, without regard to whether or not they already have superior immunity from a prior infection. Many of these occupations are high-exposure... and we're generally talking about people who worked their job throughout the pandemic. Lots of nurses have had the COVID. This view -- ignoring natural immunity -- is quite literally directly against our scientific understanding.
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TheBouncer
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Re: Corona

Post by TheBouncer »

OrgasmAlley wrote:To highlight the nature of the issue I have here, in the US some locales are currently terminating nurses, police officers, and so forth on the basis of local mandates because they refuse to get vaccinated, without regard to whether or not they already have superior immunity from a prior infection. Many of these occupations are high-exposure... and we're generally talking about people who worked their job throughout the pandemic. Lots of nurses have had the COVID. This view -- ignoring natural immunity -- is quite literally directly against our scientific understanding.

I’m not sure why we haven’t started testing for antibodies yet. Would be simple way to find out.
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Re: Corona

Post by OrgasmAlley »

It would provide the part of the equation. Antibodies are the active immune system... the imunoglobulins which attach to antigens or inhibit pathogen movement or protein synthesis in some way. How long antibodies to a particular pathogen last in the body varies, for reasons we don't really understand. It takes 200 years to lose half your antibodies following a measles infection, but COVID antibodies have a much shorter life. Memory lymphocyte T and B cells are persistent, and more important for preventing serious cases. COVID appears to generate a robust memory cell response, and they cut immune response by about 1/3rd and deliver a much larger antibody response to infection.

If we're acknowledging that the vaccinations are theraputic instead of prophylactic, the standard should be to measure value of prior infection based on memory lymphocytes.
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kinbaku
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Re: Corona

Post by kinbaku »

Just as I am going to a sister-in-law's birthday with my family next week, there has been a corona outbreak in my municipality. :cry:
The mayor asked us to stick to the corona measures for ten days.

The question was whether they would take me with my brothers car to the birthday.

One solution they offered was to put me in the car-trunk with a whole heap of cologne. :shock:
My suggestion was to sit on top of the roof of the car. :)

The best suggestion came from my other brother: "Do you have a trailer hitch! Then tie him to that… or to the bumper." :rofl:
He should know how close he is to the truth what I really want (because nobody knows I'm in (self-)bondage 8) ). :rofl:
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ponylady
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Re: Corona

Post by ponylady »

OrgasmAlley wrote:Memory lymphocyte T and B cells are persistent, and more important for preventing serious cases. COVID appears to generate a robust memory cell response, and they cut immune response by about 1/3rd and deliver a much larger antibody response to infection.
that's why the 3rd/booster shot is so important. those t- & b-cells are "created" by the immune response to an infection. of course, that response is much more "thorough" when faced with the real SARS-CoV2.
those "hybrid immunity" (infected & vaxxed) is the current gold-standard. preliminary data shows the booster shot is raising the reaction of the lymphotic immune response drastically.

and the fact that these cells mutate & create new antibodies raises possibility that ones antibodies are still effective against new SARS-CoV2- variants.

that's why booster shots are important.

but... more important is making vaccines avaiable in the parts of the world that aren't as lucky as us "1st worlders". new variants, "bred" in infection hotbeds in asia or africa may undermine the effectiveness of the current vaccines.
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Re: Corona

Post by OrgasmAlley »

"preliminary data shows the booster shot is raising the reaction of the lymphotic immune response drastically." The data you're referencing here?
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