Corona

[OrgasmAlley]

In this particular area, post-death reporting, the US is basically a hot mess. We -- meaning the CDC -- are tracking two types of COVID deaths: died with, and suspected died with. The former requires a positive test for SARS-COV-2. The latter has wide discretion, but in theory someone (ME, declaring doctor) should be reasonably sure based on reported symptoms that the person died with the virus. Last I heard, we are not testing anyone after death. The CDC data presentation used to call out the suspected deaths, but I cannot find that anymore... it was ranging around 10% of total deaths reported.

There are factors for both over- and under-counting in our system. The primary undercounting mechanism is simply missing people who died with the disease. If someone dies at home and doesn't interact with the medical system, they aren't very likely to be counted as COVID even if they had it... even if they live with someone who reports some symptoms. On the other hand, hospitals actually get paid money if they have a COVID patient die there, so the incentive is to code it with the COVID.

The base counting premise -- died with, instead of died from -- is the most cloudy of all. A person could be tested COVID-positive and totally asymptomatic but die because of a heart condition... and they still count. And if they die in a hospital they almost certainly WILL count because of the financial incentive to do so. The number of people who died from (that is, because they had) COVID in the US is impossible to extract from our data.

[Shannon SteelSlave]

Total Confirmed 4,136,056 Global Deaths 283,478
With so many parts of the US easing restrictions, perhaps too early for safety, but maybe too late to prevent permanent damage to the economy and business, how are you feeling about the situation? Do you think closing the country was or remains worth it? Do you think others are getting tired of quarantine to the point of defiance?

[bound_jenny]

Do you think closing the country was or remains worth it?

One word: Sweden.

Do you think others are getting tired of quarantine to the point of defiance?

It's getting there. People are fed up with the endless postponements and dire predictions of what would happen if we opened up too early.

It's been two weeks since Georgia (US state) started the process of opening businesses gradually, and I heard today that the apocalypse in Georgia has been canceled (it's hard to social-distance at an apocalypse). They number of new cases (and ICU occupants) has been steadily decreasing despite the "deconfinement" measures undertaken.

So who's right? The breathless doom-sayers or the down-to-earth realists?

Jenny.

[Gregovic]

Do you think closing the country was or remains worth it?

One word: Sweden.

Despite all the praise heaped on Sweden, the spread of the virus there is not slowing very fast, like it is in all countries that HAVE implemented measures. There are a lot of reasons Sweden is not easily comparable to other countries and communities, and what "works" there, might not work in other places. Just because they don't have an out of control outbreak there, doesn't mean that what they are doing can automatically be replicated in other countries.

Do you think closing the country was or remains worth it?

Do you think others are getting tired of quarantine to the point of defiance?

It's getting there. People are fed up with the endless postponements and dire predictions of what would happen if we opened up too early.

It's been two weeks since Georgia (US state) started the process of opening businesses gradually, and I heard today that the apocalypse in Georgia has been canceled (it's hard to social-distance at an apocalypse). They number of new cases (and ICU occupants) has been steadily decreasing despite the "deconfinement" measures undertaken.

So who's right? The breathless doom-sayers or the down-to-earth realists?

Jenny.

Probably a little of both. Things could have gotten a LOT more dire, but it's also very hard to compare for instance Georgia with New York state, or NY with New York City. Policy makers did what they had to with the information they had, and erred on the side of caution. You should not blame them for that too much. DO NOT lose sight of the fact this is a very nasty virus that can have lasting health effects on those that survive it and is a lot more deadly than other contagious seasonal diseases like influenza we are normally prepared to deal with. It WILL be with us for a long time to come (likely 2 years or more) and it is likely things won't EVER get back to exactly the way they were. It sucks. But don't do anything stupid like believing the media that say that we've been lied to and it was all for naught, nor the media that says we're all going to die a horrible and painful death.

[sweh]

It's been two weeks since Georgia (US state) started the process of opening businesses gradually, and I heard today that the apocalypse in Georgia has been canceled

Hmm...

Updated: 8:02 PM EDT May 11, 2020

ATLANTA — The number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in metro Atlanta continues to increase, with only the southwest portion of the state rivaling its level of increase. Much of that increase continues to be reflected in Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton counties. Scroll down for details.

Atlanta's northeastern metro counties -- particularly Gwinnett and Hall counties -- are seeing a surge in confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to the most recent numbers released by the Department of Public Health. In comparison, counties in far Southwest Georgia remain the area which shows the highest number of cases relative to their populations.

My company's HQ is in Atlanta and nobody is going to the office if they can avoid it.

[sweh]

Despite all the praise heaped on Sweden, the spread of the virus there is not slowing very fast, like it is in all countries that HAVE implemented measures. There are a lot of reasons Sweden is not easily comparable to other countries and communities, and what "works" there, might not work in other places. Just because they don't have an out of control outbreak there, doesn't mean that what they are doing can automatically be replicated in other countries.

Sweden is doing _worse_ than its neighbours

The number of COVID-19 cases and related deaths has been higher in Sweden compared to its Nordic neighbors — Norway and Finland, which both imposed complete lockdowns. As of Friday, May 8, Sweden had recorded 25,265 cases of the coronavirus and 3,175 deaths for a population of about 10.2 million. Norway, with about half the population, has 8,055 cases and 218 deaths, while Finland (population 5.5 million) has 5,738 cases and 260 deaths.

Further, Sweden's approach only kept numbers this low because of testing; something the US totally f*****d up

Tegnell said the Swedish health-care system has not been overwhelmed because it spotted cases early on. Several other countries became overwhelmed, he said, because “they did not see the slow beginning and only noticed when there were already too many cases.” Sweden also began testing early on and saw the pandemic coming with spring vacation travel. Spring break was in full swing in Europe back in February, and that’s when cases began to surface.

And, of course, Sweden pays people to stay at home so they don't _have_ to go to work:

Sweden made it possible for sick people to stay home by giving them sick pay from the very first day they miss work. When people get paid for sick days, they have no financial incentive to go to work. This has also helped the country control the spread of the virus, he said.

So, yeah, Sweden isn't doing that good and it's not a total disaster 'cos they did other things instead.

[OrgasmAlley]

That 11alive.com text sure does sound dire! Is it?

Of course "cases continue to increase", since one new case of COVID means cases have increased. However, we have a _state_ reopening, not two counties covering part of a metro area that are supposedly "surging". Naturally, it is most likely that the counties that previously had the highest percentage of confirmed cases by population will continue to take that honor, especially if the increase is cases is relatively small at this time. So all of that doesn't really say anything at all.

Georgia has very clear data two and a half weeks after reopening, and we don't need someone's fear-wording to describe it. Georgia data, among which I would direct particularly to the 14 week charts for cases over time and deaths over time:

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

In terms of Sweden, it's far to early to tell much of anything. If a highly effective vaccine comes out tomorrow, Sweden will have made the wrong choice for sure. If one never comes, or comes in a year for that matter, Sweden's choice is likely to look for more attractive. Many people considering this question at this time make what seem to be the two most common mistakes in COVID discussion... confusing the purpose of lockdowns and ignoring the costs of lockdown. In the absence of miracles, lockdowns are not reducing cases long term. They are avoiding an initial surge that overwhelms the health care system. Sweden avoided any overwhelming at all without much government intervention. They also avoided most of the costs other countries will suffer, in both economic and human metrics. People locked down, people who lose their business, their livelihood, their savings... some of those people die from it, and we may never have a clear accounting there.

[tiemeupalso]

I haven't seen or heard of a SINGLE autopsy proving people are dieing of covid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think its all bs by some government or the UN to make this a one world planet. be damned what the countries want

[Shannon SteelSlave]

I haven't seen or heard of a SINGLE autopsy proving people are dieing of covid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think its all bs by some government or the UN to make this a one world planet. be damned what the countries want

Yeah, but so many are committed to the lie.........

[Gregovic]

I haven't seen or heard of a SINGLE autopsy proving people are dieing of covid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think its all bs by some government or the UN to make this a one world planet. be damned what the countries want

what do you want to hear? There's plenty of reports from medical professionals on what this virus does to the body and why people die from it. And if you honestly believe this is supposed to create a new earth-wide government, then don't worry about it. They're failing miserably because the world is more divided than it has been for a long time. It's almost like they're completely inept. Or just don't exist and this virus (that medical professionals have been warning about as far back as the early 1990s) is actually real and dangerous to peoples health. Either way, nothing to worry about.

I know 3 formerly healthy but somewhat elderly people that contracted the Wuhan corona. 2 are now dead after 3 miserable weeks of hacking their lungs out and slowly suffocating, and the third is still in bad shape but slowly recovering. She'll never have normal lung function again and it's likely she'll need to move into a care home when she was previously living with her husband (one of the other 2 that died) at home without needing any assistance. I also know 2 healthy young people that have had this virus, one of whom described the experience as the most miserable 2 weeks of his life and "like breathing through a straw, while coughing so hard it makes your throat bleed. So, anecdotal evidence tells me there is a very nasty virus doing the rounds and the medical professionals all seem to think it's this Wuhan Corona virus. So, make of that what you will

[OrgasmAlley]

This concept has been bubbling around various places. Manson writing in Medscape is by far the most respectable place it has been mentioned with respect to COVID that I know of. Vitamin D.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152

Dr JoAnn Manson, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women's Hospital. All the key excerpts so you don't have to join Medscape:

"In an observational study from three South Asian hospitals, the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was much higher among those with severe COVID illness compared with those with mild illness. In fact, there was about an eightfold higher risk of having severe illness among those who entered with vitamin D deficiency compared with those who had sufficient vitamin D levels."

"There's also evidence from a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials of vitamin D supplementation looking at acute respiratory tract infections (upper and lower). This was published in the British Medical Journal 2 years ago, showing that vitamin D supplementation was associated with a significant reduction in these respiratory tract infections. Overall, it was only a 12% reduction, but among the participants who had profound vitamin D deficiency at baseline (such as a blood level of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D of less than 10 ng/mL), there was a 70% lower risk of respiratory infection with vitamin D supplementation."

"We are in the process of planning a randomized clinical trial of vitamin D supplementation in moderate to high doses to see whether it has a role in the risk of developing COVID-19 infections and also in reducing the severity of disease and improving clinical outcomes."

[Shannon SteelSlave]

Testing. Do you need a test, and if so, you have choices. From what I understand, we have the hard swab, the self swab, antibody, the take home swab, the take home saliva, and the one in the news for having a 60% false negative, the 15 minute test.
From what I gather, the hard swab is the best test. The antibody test seems to offer an added incentive, not one I can describe in detail yet. The take home tests are meant for people afraid to venture out, but offer a great chance for scammers to cash in. And the 15 minutes test. In 15 minutes, they can give you a possibly much needed sense of false security.
So have you been tested? How did you react to the results? I'll bet negative results were met by a immediate realization that you only tested negative up to the minute of the test, and could have easily been exposed in the meantime, or even as you left the testing centre.
Coming soon, do and don'ts of interviewing for a job these days. How to regain employment, or upgrade your current one. Stay tuned.

[Shannon SteelSlave]

So, my recent attempt to upgrade my career was met with disappointment. I walked in with my mask and assumed social distancing. Outside of a pandemic, these would be 2 things not to do at an interview. The manager seemed too busy at the time for the interview, and because of the virus, was not sure what current staff to keep, and who will be let go. I had more or less decided that at any rate, this is not a good time to make a change, regardless of why this owner seemed disorganized and uncertain.
Have you been interviewing? Do you think it is reasonably possible to conduct a proper interview these days? My experience has me believing that I should wait.

[Shannon SteelSlave]

Total Confirmed 4,836,329, Global Deaths 319,213
Hydroxychloroquine. (The anti-malaria, lupus and arthritis treatment drug) I spelled and pronounced it right without looking it up. Seems to be making headlines again, though its benefits against Corona are unknown, its side effects are well documented. Why does it continue to appear in the news? If I understand correctly, we don't have any proof that it works, and even if it did, it may kill just as many people as it could save.

[cdinbonds]

Why does it continue to appear in the news?

In a word, "Trump".
Apparently he has been taking it, unknown to others. He says it's his choice or something like that.