Corona

[Gregovic]

While not relevant to the Astra vaccine, which is single strand DNA, the CDC recently published a study of the mRNA vaccines (primarily Pfizer, Moderna) effectiveness in the real world with very stark results. In short, about 4,000 front line workers were tracked. Some were unvaccinated, others partially vaccinated (one of two shots), and the remainder were fully vaccinated... a shot is considered received 2 weeks after the injection. The study lasted for 13 weeks, and participants were tested weekly during that time. Incidence rates per 1,000 person-days:

Unvaccinated: 1.38 per 1,000
Partially vaccinated: 0.19 per 1,000
Fully vaccinated: 0.04 per 1,000

Numerically, there were 3 breakthrough cases (infection in fully vaccinated person) among the 2,500 fully vaccinated people. Interesting aside, the number for unvaccinated participants implies that front line workers -- as highly exposed as anyone -- have a roughly 50% chance of catching COVID over the course of three years at this point in time.

This matches closely with studies at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center and the University of California San Diego Health Center, with 8,121 and 14,999 vaccinated workers respectively. UTSW found 4 infections, UC had 7.

The conclusion is that while it's possible to get COVID when fully vaccinated with these two vaccines, the frequency is vanishingly small. The CDC continues to maintain their fear-inducing, unsupported recommendations that fully vaccinated people must continue under the same precautions as those not or partially vaccinated. My personal suspicion is that this is about population control, since it's not based on science... that is, once some people can take off their masks, many others might as well. Not really the way the CDC is supposed to operate.

CDC study: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/ ... _w#T2_down
UTSW: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2102153
UCSD: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2101927

IMHO if maintaining that even those vaccinated should keep up with following the recommended precautions means that stupid unvaccinated people are more likely to keep up their own precautions then that is exactly what the CDC IS supposed to do. Vaccination rates aren't high enough yet to let everyone just do their thing. Stopping their recommendation likely means that that is exactly what would happen.

[OrgasmAlley]

You're welcome to that opinion of course. I believe it's not the CDC's job to lie and mislead to achieve political aims, and that their current position fails to incentivize people to be vaccinated. Likewise, the 6' vs. 3' social distancing.. completely unsupported by science and the majority of the world, and having only one impact: limit occupancy of spaces (largely but not exclusively those used for business) more that necessary.

It's one thing to make a best guess, even one that is quite conservative, and entirely different to issue guidance in complete disagreement with things we actually do know.

[lj]

OrgasmAlley, agreed. FWIW in the UK, with nearly 90% of the higher risk people vaccinated at least once, we are still told to wear masks, social distance, no physical contact with friends/family, with the warnings that we can still (against scientific studies indicating minimal risk) infect others.

This is government thought-control gone way over the top. You can't switch off fear in a population as easily as you can instil it. There will be significant numbers of people terrified to leave their houses for years to come.

A consequence of all this propaganda is that the vast majority of the population have lost any shred of understanding of risk.

[JIMDINI]

we are still told to wear masks, social distance, no physical contact with friends/family, with the warnings that we can still (against scientific studies indicating minimal risk) infect others.

While not wanting to pour cold water on your comments on mask wearing, it has reduced the spread of flu and colds as well.

Prof Witty UK chief medical officer said "Covid will not just go away. You've got to work out what's a rational policy to this and here I would differentiate quite a lot between a pandemic environment and what you get with seasonal flu. Every year, somewhere between 7,000 and 9,000 citizens die of flu, most of them very elderly, and every few years you get a bad flu year where 20,000 to 25,000 die of it. The last time we had that was three years ago and no one noticed it. So it is clear we are going to have to manage it, at some point, rather like we manage the flu. Here is a seasonal, very dangerous disease that kills thousands of people and society has chosen a particular way round it."
Prof Whitty said it was important to bring Covid deaths as low as possible, but warned that society would not tolerate being locked down to prevent similar numbers of deaths to those from flu. "We want to get as close as we can [to zero] but the question is how do you balance that against other priorities?" he said. "What are people prepared to put up with? What we've demonstrated in the last year is we don't have to have flu at all if we don't want to, because the things we’ve done against Covid have led to virtually no influenza. If next year we say 'we can deal with flu, everyone lock down over the winter' I think the medical profession would not make itself popular with the general public. We need to work out some balance which actually keeps it at a low level, minimises deaths as best we can, but in a way that the population tolerates, through medical countermeasures like vaccines and in due course drugs, which mean you can minimise mortality while not maximising the economic and social impacts on our fellow citizens."

[lj]

I don't have a problem with mask wearing if there is a good reason. I've had the first dose of vaccine, I live in an area where the infection rate is now almost zero, and I don't frequent crowded buildings. My assessment is that my risk of infection is almost zero, so am happy to take my chances. By definition, from those circumstances, I won't be infectious either, so I am no risk to anyone else. So I don't wear a mask unless it is required, for example entering a shop.

In my 70-plus years I have had flu once, so I have no intention of wearing a mask on the off-chance I meet someone with flu, in circumstances where infection is likely.

However, I don't argue with the far-Eastern idea of wearing a mask when you DO have an infection, whether it is flu or a common cold, as that will reduce the risk of passing it on.

To suggest we may need to continue (anti-) social distancing for several years is just plain stupid, Whitty et al. are scientists (so am I) and a scientist will never say any event will absolutely never occur (or will definitely occur) because that is unprovable, so they will err on the side of caution. They have no need of balancing other factors when answering a scientific question. Unfortunately our politicians, who are supposed to do the balancing, are totally ignorant of science and take everything their scientific advisers say as fact.

[Shannon SteelSlave]

No one who chooses not to vaccinate is stupid. There are many reasons I have heard, both in person and on the National Public Radio. Some for religious reasons, some political, others fear being marked, many afraid it was too hastily developed, a great number may be allergic or believe they may be, and those who simply do not want to be the first to get the shot(s). Afterall, what we currently have available have been approved for emergency use only at this time, and more trials will be conducted before it will be offered as a full fledged solution outside of pandemic conditions.
Whatever the reason for taking or declining a vaccine, it is a public health concern. Politics should have nothing to do with it. What I am not clear on is how anyone who does take the vaccine is a hero. From what I have been informed, it is still possible to carry the virus and infect others, despite personal immunity. I would say that not ending up in an emergency room for powerful symptoms is a good thing. Whatever my stance is, I commend anyone who chooses vaccine. But I also understand hesitancy. May not work, belief that side effects may not outweigh risk or impact of infection. It is a choice everyone must make.

[ruru67]

I have to say I have rather little time for the anti-vax community, given that it's largely been driven by lying bastards like Andrew Wakefield and a bunch of bottom-feeding ambulance chasers attempting to shake down the pharma industry, with no care at all about the damage being done to public health systems.

Vaccination is only going to work if people get vaccinated. If not, you're going to be asked to lock down, social distance and wear masks for much longer.

[OrgasmAlley]

It certainly did not help, here in the US, when the highest profile members of the opposition party publicly opposed the vaccine, even if that position switched once they were the party in power.

I do hear what you're saying, Shannon. The official voices in the US have repeatedly made fear-inducing claims later proven totally false, starting with 3% (and higher) mortality and 2.2 billion Americans dead in 2020 and hospital demand at 3x capacity. Now the position is you should get the vaccine, but nothing changes in your life (except maybe you get your papers that allow you to do things like fly or attend a sporting event, God forbid). Keep the two masks and social distancing, say away from members of other households, and so forth. You said "From what I have been informed, it is still possible to carry the virus and infect others, despite personal immunity" and that's a perfect example. It goes like this:

Fauci says: "a vaccinated person might be a able to spread COVID without being infected, we don't know"
Media reports: "vaccinated people could spread COVID even if they aren't infected"
Man on the street hears: "vaccinated people can inflect people even if they don't have COVID"

The isn't any research indicating a vaccinated person can spread COVID if they aren't infected. Fauci knows this. There's quite a good video of Rand Paul grilling him about evidence like this in committee, as Fauci pointedly doesn't answer. He's basically claiming he cannot prove that there isn't an elephant in the living room. A fully vaccinated person can rarely become infected (so rare it's termed a "breakthrough case"), and we don't actually know if they're contagious under that condition.

I know a number of people who are not anti-vaxxers but won't get a COVID vaccine at this time. I agree that there are many reasons I've heard behind these decisions... yet also agree that the majority of them are based on bad information. Not all. I have lots of data-based answers to concerns like "not enough trial testing" and "too many side effects" and "people get COVID from the vaccines" (all false). I don't have an answer to "we don't know what the long term effects of the vaccine might be"... because that's quite true.

I think a big miss has been the scientific background behind mRNA vaccine technology itself. Much has been made of the fastest vaccine development ever, and that's true.. but it would be worthwhile to note that a couple of researchers at UPenn and another in Israel have basically spent their professional careers doing the underlying research. At least at Penn they were developing mRNA on coronaviruses (not sure about Israel, but I have a sister in faculty at Penn), which made adapting this adaptable technology to a specific coronavirus especially rapid. This doesn't take anything away from the brilliance of Operation Warp Speed. However, saying "we developed the first mRNA vaccine in less than a year" is less confidence inspiring than "in a year we adapted 20 years of research into the first production mRNA vaccine".

[Riddle]

I am hesitant to get the mRNA vaccine and have decided to go with the Johnson and Johnson vaccine.

[Shannon SteelSlave]

Is choice of vaccines possible in all areas?

[OrgasmAlley]

Excellent question. I took the first available, and it happened to be the Air Force administering Moderna at a county site. Strong preference for the mRNA vaccines, here, so I was pleased. Had it been the JnJ, I would have taken that one though. They were incredibly efficient, from enter to done in 20 minutes, include 15 minutes sitting there after.

[Riddle]

Is choice of vaccines possible in all areas?

Vaccine choice is not available where I live, but I am waiting for the JnJ anyway.

[OrgasmAlley]

Pfizer reports out of Phase 3 ongoing trials that their mRNA vaccine effectiveness remains almost unchanged after 6 months, and that present results indicate 100% effectiveness against the South African variant B.1.351 and 100% effective against severe disease as defined by the CDC.

[OrgasmAlley]

We've had study evidence for this for quite a while, in addition to the general behavior of respiratory viruses (I've posted several relevant studies here), but the CDC has maintained until yesterday that surface fomites are a potentially significant means of COVID transmission. Their language since May was "it may be possible" to pass on the bug from contaminated surfaces. No more.

CDC guidance, April 5: "The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is through exposure to respiratory droplets carrying infectious virus. It is possible for people to be infected through contact with contaminated surfaces or objects (fomites), but the risk is generally considered to be low." This language is still softer than actual science supports... there is in fact virtually no support for a claim that fomite transmission is of any significance at all. CDC... disinfectant salesman of the year.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ssion.html

It's also interesting in here that they've softened their position on asymptomatic spread from "possible" to "cannot be ruled out": "Fomite transmission is difficult to prove definitively, in part because respiratory transmission from asymptomatic people cannot be ruled out." The evidence against asymptomatic spread is also quite substantial, and again it is not be typical of respiratory viruses.

The CDC should not publish guidance not aligned with the actual science. It was fine to fear (irrationally, I believe) fomite transmission and asymptomatic spread initially... but they have maintained that fear far beyond the return of actual sciencing on the question. At every step, the CDC has overstated to risks of COVID, from transmissibility to remediation measures. It's pathetic.

[lj]

Now, here's a piece of genius here in the UK

(a) The government is encouraging everyone to be vaccinated, but insists that those who have been, should behave as though they still have not been vaccinated, as they may still be able to transmit it.

(b) The government are considering covid passports - you qualify if you have caught covid, have a course of vaccination or take a series of (negative) tests. Then you can move completely freely, without restriction.

Conclusion : the covid passport prevents transmission of the virus.

just think, a smartphone app would have stopped covid in its tracks...